2008 NBA Draft Prospectus

Before the 2007 NBA Draft I seriously believed we were looking at one of the greatest group of prospects to ever enter the NBA. It now appears as though I may have overestimated … badly. On paper the draft had so much going for it. It included two of the most highly acclaimed freshman ever, there was plenty of size, and there were three starters from the two time defending NCAA champions. The draft looked very deep and included players that seemed ready to contribute immediately. Instead, that draft class was an immediate disappointment. Of course, in a few years it may be considered good, but as rookies, they collectively underachieved. The top pick, Greg Oden, was injured and never played, so we’ll need to wait for him. The other “can’t miss” prospect, Kevin Durant (#2), proved that he’s a scorer but not yet a great shooter and that there are still gaping holes in his game that he must work on. Durant was the highest scoring rookie, but the most immediately prepared might have been Al Horford (#3). He looks like he’ll be a productive low-post leader for many years to come. Only a few other rookies contributed to their teams and many first round picks found themselves sitting on the end of the bench or in the D-League. Overall, the 2007 NBA Draft class was a bust.

The 2008 NBA Draft looks weak and uninspiring on paper, so perhaps in this new Bizarro world of draft scouting that means we’re looking at a fantastic class. Like last year, the top two picks will be one-and-done freshmen. Michael Beasley had one of the most productive freshman seasons ever. He led the country in rebounding and was third in scoring. Beasley is every bit as talented as Kevin Durant, plus he has a strong NBA-ready body. Derrick Rose is a powerful point guard with an exceptional basketball IQ. He is just a little more shooting range away from being a near-perfect point guard prospect. Now here’s the problem – after those two guys, the talent level drops off a cliff. There is a majority of one-and-done players that aren’t close to being ready for the NBA yet. My advice is always for prospects to play at least two years in the NCAA unless they are sure to be a top ten pick. I don’t care about their interest in getting paid. That’s an issue for the player and his (misleading) agent. I only care about basketball and a prospect that can’t make an NBA roster is useless. There are only about 450 roster spots in the NBA. A borderline prospect rarely gets one of those jobs, and this draft is loaded with bordeliners. There are only a few centers available, most of the point guards are shooting guards trying to make the dreaded position change, and there will be almost no seniors or juniors taken in the first round.

I really hope that a few hidden gems come out of this draft and become instant superstars in the NBA. But that’s hard to envision. It’s easier to see that the rule requiring a prospect be one year out of high school hasn’t helped. It has only forced kids to go to college for a season, and if they do well at all, they get overconfident and enter the draft. If that kid doesn’t make the roster of the team that drafts him, everyone is hurt – the kid, the team, and the fans that depend on their team’s draft picks. The rule must extend the "waiting period" to two years out of high school before entering the draft. This draft will prove that.